I just had an interesting e-mail exchange with someone on the subject of Trump, Putin, Zelensky, and the quest for peace in the Ukraine. Negotiations are underway today in Washington, D.C., and no one knows how things will turn out. I pray for peace.

This E-mail is from a thoughtful observer who is very concerned that we continue supporting the Ukraine. He is not fully supportive of some of President Trump’s recent actions and was reacting to my recent blog post on the subject.

1) Russia began its 2022 attack by attempting to decapitate Ukraine’s central government, invading and occupying Kiev as a first step to taking over the whole of Ukraine.  Only after suffering severe losses did the Russians shift their efforts to the east, where two of the five Donbass regions were already in the control of Russian separatists.  Russia has been in control of Crimea since 2014.  Their net gain in the war so far has been three other Donbass regions.

2) Throughout the conflict, Russia has been deliberately targeting residential buildings, schools, hospitals and the like as a matter of state policy.  This continues.  Also in several well documented cases the Russian military has been executing Ukrainian soldiers taken captive. The Ukrainian forces, for the most part, have not responded in kind.  Is it any wonder that most of the western world, with the notable exception of the Trump administration, has labeled Putin a war criminal?

3) You say that if Zelensky refuses to permanently give up the Crimea and entire Donbass in return for a ceasefire/peace deal then Trump will probably walk away and take all US assistance with him.  However, what is more likely to occur is that Zelinsky will likely insist on NATO-like protection for what remains of Ukraine before formally and permanently parting with those regions.  Europe (sans Russia) will probably back him.  Is that unreasonable?

4) Putin is a serial and well documented liar.  Two days before Russia invaded, Putin told Macron to his face that Russia had no plans to invade.  I believe this was what Zelensky was trying to tell Trump and Vance in February when Vance went off on Zelensky.  Vance called Ukrainian efforts to show the world what is going on “propaganda tours.”  That’s pretty insulting.  If Trump and Vance really trust Putin at his word, all I have to say is, we are in deep trouble.

5) Trust me when I say, if despite Europe’s best efforts, Ukraine collapses in the end and is totally occupied by Russia, it will be Trump’s & Vance’s loss too – whether they own up to it or not.  Most of the world will see it that way, whether the MAGA crowd chooses to recognize it or not.  Israel will take note too.  So will Taiwan.  So will Japan.  So will the Baltic states. So will the remainder of NATO.

6) Either the USA is still the “Arsenal of Democracy,” or we are not.  I have not seen more examples of Ukraine corruption than many of the other democracies we have supported in the past.  This one is worth saving

My E-mail response.

 I make no apology for Putin.  He is evil, and he is not to be trusted.  I am convinced that Trump realizes the sort of man he is dealing with. However, to deal with Putin, he thinks it counterproductive to call Putin out as the criminal bastard he is.  Rather, he thinks it wiser to flatter the man as he pressures him to negotiate.  I also believe that Trump wishes to succor the Ukrainian people.  He feels for them.  But above all, Trump wants to end the carnage.  To do this, he must get Putin and Zelensky to come to the table.

As he meets with Zelensky and the Europeans, I feel certain that Trump will pressure Zelensky to make certain territorial concessions.  Putin will never agree to stop fighting until he gets something.  The question is, will the Ukrainians be able and willing to satisfy Russia’s minimal demands?   If Russia pushes too far, I believe Trump will join our European NATO allies and provide substantive military support to the Ukraine (to be mostly paid for by European NATO members) .  He will also impose secondary tariffs to further weaken Russia’s economy. On the other hand, if Putin cooperates but Ukraine refuses to make any territorial concessions, I believe that Trump will withdraw his support for that nation.  

The loss of any Ukrainian territory could be considered a reward to Putin for his aggression, but some territorial concessions may be the only way to end hostilities.  Putin will want even more, but I expect that Trump will sweeten the deal for Putin by ending sanctions, pledging to bring Russia back into the Western trade community, etc.  As for Zelensky, the United States will entice him with promises of US/European security guarantees, massive economic assistance, etc.

As for being the “Arsenal of Democracy,” we have played that role for more than 85 years.  In the process, we have spent many trillions of dollars and are on the brink of economic exhaustion.  That is why Trump is pushing our European allies to bear the burden of keeping Russia in check.