Note: Since retaking the Presidency, Trump has unleashed a war against globalists as part of his campaign to restore American greatness..  His major weapon in ths fight is the imposition of tariffs and a rejection of long term beliefs in free trade.  Perhaps it would be well to review what I wrote about Trump and tariffs three months ago.

As he prepared to take office, President-elect Trump threatened to use tariffs as a diplomatic weapon in dealing with foreign states and to protect American industries from foreign competition. Now comes the backlash. The free-trade advocates, Democrat and Republican, are howling.

For the past hundred years the belief in free trade has had a broad consensus among economists.  They believe that protectionism has a negative effect on economic growth and economic welfare while free trade and the reduction of trade barriers has a positive effect on our nation’s overall economy.  In a 2006 survey of American economists, almost 90% asserted that the United States should remove its remaining tariffs and other barriers to trade.  It ‘s clear that the vast majority of economists still think that way, and they fear that President Trump’s present flirtation with tariffs and protectionism will lead to disaster.

Economists admit that the removal of trade barriers can cause significant and unequally distributed losses in some sectors and lead to the economic dislocation of workers, but they hold fast to the belief that, in the long run, free trade is a net gain for our nation and for the world.

Because of free trade and availability of relative cheap foreign products, the United States has become very dependent on foreign sources for a great variety of products.   We have ceased to produce many things, and other products are no longer manufactured here in the quantities that we need. There is no doubt that the imposition of heavy tariffs would significantly increase the cost of living for the average American family.  How much of an increase will our citizens tolerate to help grow new American factories, create new jobs, and ease our dependence on foreign suppliers, some of whom are our adversaries.   

I am no economist, but I believe that the professionals in this field have seriously understated the deleterious effect of free trade on many American workers.  Consider the rust belt of the Midwest and the hollowed-out textile and furniture towns of the Carolinas.  Some regions have managed to recover by developing new industries, but unemployment, despair and drugs run rampant in many areas.  Residents of these places rushed to the polls to cast their votes for Trump.

Trump has many intelligent people among his advisors.  They understand the dangers of excessive tariffs.  Used selectively and wisely, however, I believe tariffs could be a vital tool in reviving the American economy, even in those regions too long overlooked by the globalists.  All nations use tariffs, quotas, and other trade barriers to protect their vital interests, and we must do the same.  Trump promises reprocity, meaning a willingness to keep our tariffs low if other nations reduce their barriers to American imports.

Outside their economic utility, I’m certain that Trump wishes to employ tariffs or threats of tariffs to force cooperation from other nations as he attempts to deal with critical issues such as immigration and world peace.

Only time will tell if Trump’s strategy is correct.       

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