On Wednesday mornings I participate in a discussion group.  There are six or seven of us, and we communicate on-line rather than in person.  During our most recent session I was asked for my evaluation of the Iranian situation.  I said that I remained cautiously optimistic.

Here I give a more complete explanation of my reasoning on this subject.

I believe that the United States and Israel were justified and correct in their attack on Iran.  Even though Iran’s nuclear production facilities were devastated by strikes in the summer of 2025, Iran possessed a stockpile of already processed uranium that could be brought up to weapons grade, and they were working on missiles capable of delivering these weapons almost anywhere in the world.  Even more alarming, Iran was led by extremists who expressed undying enmity towards America and Israel and had an apocalyptic vision of how things should end.  Can’t you visualize Iranian mullahs screaming “Allahu Akbar” as the White House goes up in flames? In the meantime, Iranian machinations stirred up unending turmoil in in the Middle East.  Our intervention was necessary.     

Trump is a pragmatist.  He has no desire to get bogged down in war in Iran or elsewhere.  Rather, his chief concern is to revive the American economy and do everything he can to ensure a Republican victory in the coming mid-term elections.  The longer the Iranian conflict drags on, the greater the chance of political disaster for Trump in November.  I believe he is seeking an Iranian exit strategy to be executed within the next few weeks.  Where there is a will, there must be a way.

The most desirable outcome would for a popular overthrow of the Iranian government.  Trump has often expressed his support and admiration of the Iranian people and suggested that it was up to them to get rid of their oppressors.  Perhaps the American and Israeli strikes have made this possible.  What percentage of Iranian citizens support the government? How many wish to overthrow it? How deeply has the controlling apparatus been wounded?  Are guns being provided to Iranian citizen patriots?  Is there any truly organized opposition? These things we do not know. It would be terrible to see Iranian citizens arise in revolt only to be slaughtered in the streets.  Could we stand by and watch this happen?  On the other hand, if a revolution did succeed, it could lead to a pro-Western government, a quick rebuilding of Iran’s economy, and the prospect of long-lasting peace in the Middle East.

Failing a revolution.  Trump might declare victory and come to terms with the remaining Iranian leaders.  This would be a bittersweet outcome.  The Iranian people would remain under their oppressive masters.  However, the United States would probably be able to impose terms that would leave Iran in a weakened condition for many years to come.

Either way, I believe Trump will find a way to end the war in the next month.   

INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT IRAN

Iranians are the proud heirs of the ancient Persian Empire.  It was one of the world’s largest. In 500 B.C. that empire included Egypt, Turkey, virtually all of what we now call the Middle East, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and much of Pakistan.

Modern Iran remains a very large state.  It is more than twice the size of Texas, three times the size of France, and it contains more than 90 million people.