I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop in Iran.  That will be when the Iranian people rise up and overthrow the brutal regime that has held them captive for the last 47 years.

I do not know that it will actually happen.  I can only hope it does.

The popular demonstrations that took place in Iran last December and January were an important contributor in Trump’s decision to attack Iran on February 28.  He told the Iranian people that he was coming to their aid.  Unfortunately, it took more than a month to assemble the military force required for a successful strike.

The military campaign appears to have been an unqualified success.  Iranian weaponry has been almost obliterated.  Nevertheless, it is difficult to access the damage done to the internal power structure, the secret police, etc.  Has the regime been weakened to the extent that a popular uprising might succeed in overthrowing the tyrants?

Trump indicates that it’s now up to the Iranian people.  He doesn’t guarantee direct intervention by American Special Forces, and thus far the Israeli’s have remained silent.

The next few weeks will probably provide an answer.

If a popular government should be established, there will no doubt be a difficult period of transition during which many factions will contend for power.  Perhaps there would be some chaos. Nevertheless, the general orientation would likely be toward cooperation with the West and with fellow Middle eastern states, and an emphasis on economic growth.

If there is no popular uprising, or if it fails and the mullahs remain in power, our military campaign will likely end once Iran agrees to certain conditions that will guarantee a season of peace in the region. Among those conditions will be cessation of the Iranian nuclear and missile programs.  So long as apocalyptic minded Islamists remain in charge of Iran, however, that state must be subjected to continuous monitoring and possible coercion.